Welcome to The Index Investor
Global Macro Analysis and Asset Allocation Insights
In August 2019, we published "The Next Downturn: How Different? How Deep? How Long?"
In light of the high uncertainty surrounding the economic consequences of COVID-19, we are making it available for free.
Since 1997, our mission has been to help investors, corporate, and government leaders to better anticipate, more accurately assess, and adapt in time to emerging macro threats.
To do this, we focus on providing insights about the evolving dynamics of the global macro system and the emergent threats they produce that lie beyond the detection horizon and analytical capabilities of quantitative algorithmic methods. We translate these into probability forecasts for different macro regimes and portfolio asset allocation recommendations.
That's our edge.
Rather than statistical and machine learning, our approach more closely resembles estimative intelligence analysis. Specifically, we collect and synthesize high value information in the areas of technology, energy and the environment, the economy, national security, society, politics, whose complex interactions over time produce the effects we later observe in the form of investor beliefs and behaviors and financial market valuations, volume, and returns.
Our Evidence File helps subscribers better understand the trajectory and dynamics of important new developments in each of these areas.
(4) In between monthly publications, we publish flash updates — on our blog, via email, and via our Twitter @indexllc — if and when we obtain high value information that results in a substantial change to a forecast probability.
(5) A feature article providing an in-depth analysis of either a key macro-uncertainty (e.g., how close the system is to one or more critical thresholds) or an aspect of making good investment decisions in the face of complexity and uncertainty. These articles typically synthesize a broad range of academic research and practitioner experience to provide thought provoking insights about critical issues facing investors and their advisors.
We know that our subscribers' attention is their scarcest resource, so our goal is to maximize the return on the time you invest each month reading The Index Investor.