Welcome to The Index Investor
Global Macro Analysis, Forecasts, and Insights
Our mission is to help our subscribers develop an edge in anticipating downside threats, accurately assessing them, and adapting to them in time to avoid large losses.
To do this, we focus on the evolving dynamics of the macro system and the uncertainties and emergent threats that lie beyond the detection horizon and analytical capabilities of quantitative algorithmic methods. Rather than statistical and machine learning, our approach more closely resembles estimative intelligence analysis.
Specifically, we collect and synthesize high value information in the areas of technology, the economy, national security, society, and politics, whose complex interactions produce the effects we later observe in financial markets. Compared to new quantitative data, new qualitative data diffuses more slowly across market participants, and is only gradually incorporated into asset prices. This time delay, plus the accuracy of one's insights, enables investors to avoid large losses by taking action before the market's dominant narrative changes.
Using this methodology, we provided subscribers with advance warning of both the 2008 and 2000 financial crises (more about the history of Index Investor since its founding in 1997 can be found here, and about our core investment beliefs can be found here, including 15 year results for our model index portfolios).
Each month, we provide subscribers with 12 and 36 month probability forecasts for four possible macro regimes (which can be though of as factors) under which different asset classes deliver relatively better or worse returns. These regimes include Normal Times, High Uncertainty, High Inflation, and Persistent Deflation.
We also provide a narrative forecast that integrates the evidence and logic we have used to reach our conclusions.
Here's what one subscriber recently wrote to us: "I am delighted to be able to get your analysis again. We get everything from Wall Street, and they all seem to be saying the same thing. Your take is greatly appreciated."
You can download a free copy of a recent issue to get a better understanding of what we provide subscribers each month.
Our back issues and Research Library are both free. Investors can browse our curated content on a wide range of issues affecting medium and long-term asset class valuations, including technological, economic, environmental, national security, social, demographic, and political trends and uncertainties, as well as potential "grey swan" wildcards like environmental, infectious disease, cyber, and large-scale electromagnetic events.
Our macro forecasting methodology analyzes system stocks, flows, and critical thresholds in five areas whose effects tend to follow a roughly chronological sequence, from technological change to economic, national security, social, and political changes and effects.