Welcome to The Index Investor
Global Macro Analysis and Asset Allocation Insights
We also publish a free weekly Substack newsletter: New Global Macro Evidence and Forecasts.
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Since 1997, our purpose has been to provide timely and actionable strategic risk intelligence to investors, corporate, and government leaders that enables them to better anticipate, more accurately assess, and adapt in time to emerging macro threats.
What Our Subscribers Say:
"I am delighted to get your analysis. We get everything from Wall Street, and they all seem to be saying the same thing. Your take is greatly appreciated."
"Your research is unique. There's nothing else like this out there."
"Really enjoy reading your work. It is one of the most independent views I see."
"Your team’s economic, investment and geo-political analysis is always in-depth and thought provoking and the forecasts are persuasive."
Here's a brief description of our forecasting process:
We provide insights about the evolving dynamics of the global macro system, and early warning of emerging threats that lie beyond the detection horizon and analytical capabilities of quantitative algorithmic methods. We translate our insights into probability forecasts for different macro regimes, and use them to adjust our model portfolio's asset allocation.
Accurate foresight comes not just from good forecasting skills, but also from asking the right questions. Arguably, the second is more difficult.
Compared to new quantitative data, new qualitative data diffuses more slowly across market participants, and is only gradually incorporated into asset prices.
This time delay, plus the accuracy of their mental models and forecasts, enables astute investors to avoid large losses and achieve higher returns by taking action before the market's dominant narrative changes.
To help investors achieve these goals, we use a method called Multipath Analysis. We collect and combine high value information (threat indicators and surprises) in the areas of technology, health and disease, energy and the environment, the economy, national security, society, politics, and financial markets.
The complex interactions of trends and uncertainties in these areas cause the effects we later observe in the form of market narratives and investor beliefs, from which emerge financial market valuations and returns.
This approach enables us to ask the right questions, accurately forecast their answers, and synthesize their implications for subscribers.
Here's what you'll get in each quarterly issue of The Index Investor — all for just $250/year or $24.95/month.