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Welcome to the Sensemaking and Forecasting Methods Reading Room

Research Papers

  • Sensemaking
  • Critical Thinking in Intelligence Analysis
  • Curing Analytic Pathologies
  • Anticipating Rate Events
  • Forecasting Disruptive Technologies
  • Postmodern Strategic Warning
  • Limits to Prediction
  • Chaotic Dynamics in Multiplayer Games
  • Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable
  • Strategy Shocks from Unknown Unknowns
  • What We Can Learn From History
  • Critical Junctures in History
  • Historical Contingency and Necessity
  • Natural Science and Big History
  • Beyond Big Data
  • Understanding and Predicting Uncertainty Shocks
  • 20th Century Political/Economic Surprises
  • 20th Century Wrong Assumptions by Decade

Recommended Books

  • Superforecasting, by Tetlock and Gardner
  • Thinking Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman
  • Seeing What Others Don't, by Gary Klein
  • Models. Behaving. Badly., by Emanuel Derman
  • Forewarned, by Paul Goodwin
  • Warnings, by Clarke and Eddy
  • The Signal and The Noise, by Nate Silver
  • Think Twice, by Michael Mauboussin
  • The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect, by Judea Pearl
  • The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You, by Scott Page

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